Corona virus

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Gramps
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Corona virus

Post by Gramps »

Around here the store shelves are getting empty (or close to it) of milk, bread and other staples. Toilet paper is in short supply on the shelves here also.
Now, tell me is the Corona virus is that much of a threat to justify panic buying in fear of (from all I have read) a bad cold real easy to catch.
Maybe I am wrong but I feel if the media would shut up and let the virus do what the virus does we all would be better of just using common sense.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by FIIK »

The same here. News media needs to stop scaring everyone. They should be more afraid of the pharmaceuticals. China manufactures about 70-80 percent of our drugs.
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Morne
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Re: Corona virus

Post by Morne »

My opinion is:

For the elderly or folks with respiratory issues or compromised immune systems this is a real serious threat. Stopping visitation at nursing homes and retirement centers is smart. Moving polling places away from such places for the Tuesday primary is a smart move.

For most folks it will be a nothingburger. But wouldn’t you feel like a jerk if you gave your elderly parents or grandparents the disease that killed them?

China’s experience doesn’t make a good parallel for us. Their hygiene and medical standards are not ours. Italy’s experience is more pertinent. The had some real nightmare going on.

We need to play this smart. Everyone should be ready to bug in for a couple of weeks anyway. At worst this is good practice for being self-sufficient.

As of this moment the panic being spread by the media is more dangerous than the disease itself. That can change.

Every good zombie movie or TV series shows that scared humans are more dangerous than the zombie horde. Let’s be smart and calm. Panic serves nobody. But let’s also not ignore the threat. We can do both.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by deanimator »

I think I already had it before and during Christmas.

Due to the fire and work, I hadn't had time to go to the grocery store for a while.

I went Thursday morning after work and had to go to THREE places before I found any toilet paper. The Giant Eagle in Lakewood only had it because they had a per customer limit.

I DESPISE panicky nitwits.
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Mr. Glock
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Re: Corona virus

Post by Mr. Glock »

To add, the real question is why is it a big deal? The swine flu killed 300K in the US (or alot more than the regular flu, lots of numbers being bandied about). But, this one came out of a Chinese lab. Maybe there is something we don’t know?

Or, the media didn’t have anything else to pin on Trump this month.

Could be either.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by deanimator »

Mr. Glock wrote:To add, the real question is why is it a big deal? The swine flu killed 300K in the US (or alot more than the regular flu, lots of numbers being bandied about). But, this one came out of a Chinese lab. Maybe there is something we don’t know?

Or, the media didn’t have anything else to pin on Trump this month.

Could be either.
  1. Orange man bad.
  2. Hence the media are now dutifully parroting Chinese propaganda that the UNITED STATES is responsible for the Wuhan virus and saying anything different is "racist".
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schmieg
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Re: Corona virus

Post by schmieg »

Mr. Glock wrote:To add, the real question is why is it a big deal? The swine flu killed 300K in the US (or alot more than the regular flu, lots of numbers being bandied about). But, this one came out of a Chinese lab. Maybe there is something we don’t know?

Or, the media didn’t have anything else to pin on Trump this month.

Could be either.
Correction: the death toll from H1N1 (Swine Flu) was around 13,000, though there may have been 300k cases (can't remember - I thought it was more). It went on for about six months before the government did anything about it and there were around 1000 deaths at that point. The media didn't really make that big of a deal out of it. There is no hard evidence that this is a manufactured virus. The corona virus has been around for a long time and confined mostly to animals. This is a new strain of it.

I would think if someone were going to manufacture a biovirus weapon, they would come up with something a lot more deadly than this is.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by techmike »

So my Dad, lives in Texas, all concerned that there are 100,000 cases in Ohio. I sent him a screen shot of the Ohio.gov website that says 5. Turns out Gov. Mikey's health twit stated on TV - 100,000 cases. Then she says she was guesstimating. HERE. How can we get her fired? Who needs a lying media when our own state govt. can't find it's own posterior in a bright room with both hands and verbal instructions? :x
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schmieg
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Re: Corona virus

Post by schmieg »

techmike wrote:So my Dad, lives in Texas, all concerned that there are 100,000 cases in Ohio. I sent him a screen shot of the Ohio.gov website that says 5. Turns out Gov. Mikey's health twit stated on TV - 100,000 cases. Then she says she was guesstimating. HERE. How can we get her fired? Who needs a lying media when our own state govt. can't find it's own posterior in a bright room with both hands and verbal instructions? :x
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Re: Corona virus

Post by screwman »

I’m not doing anything different than I ever do this time of year. I don’t even want a cold. Sometimes it works...sometimes I get a cold anyway.

I used to do the outages at the local nukes before I retired. Sometimes it didn’t make a bit of difference how good of hygiene you had...jam 500 people from all over in a concrete tube, everybody gets it.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by steves 50de »

deanimator wrote:I think I already had it before and during Christmas.

Due to the fire and work, I hadn't had time to go to the grocery store for a while.

I went Thursday morning after work and had to go to THREE places before I found any toilet paper. The Giant Eagle in Lakewood only had it because they had a per customer limit.

I DESPISE panicky nitwits.
If you need some TP let me know i can spare a few rolls. :lol:
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DontTreadOnMe
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Re: Corona virus

Post by DontTreadOnMe »

techmike wrote:So my Dad, lives in Texas, all concerned that there are 100,000 cases in Ohio. I sent him a screen shot of the Ohio.gov website that says 5. Turns out Gov. Mikey's health twit stated on TV - 100,000 cases. Then she says she was guesstimating. HERE. How can we get her fired? Who needs a lying media when our own state govt. can't find it's own posterior in a bright room with both hands and verbal instructions? :x
You're confusing confirmed cases with estimates of unconfirmed cases. Yesterday your screenshot said Ohio had 5 confirmed cases. Today it's 37 (source). Right now Ohio only has a total of 3 test kits allowing testing of up to 1,400 people (source).

We don't know for sure how many Ohioans have it. We know that we've got a limited ability to test people, and of the people who've been tested roughly 10% have tested positive. Right now we only have the ability to test people who are symptomatic and we know that people can have the virus for several days before showing symptoms, and that they are infections during that time (source).

So it's extremely likely lots more Ohioans have it, but a large majority of us don't. Why are we all being asked to stay home? Greg Ellifritz did a great job summarizing an article titled Coronavirus: The Real Risks and Human Biases behind the Panic so I'll include his summary here:
Roughly 10-15% of people infected need to go to the hospital. Right now, epidemiologists are saying we can expect anywhere from 40-70% of the world population to be infected in the next year. Let’s say that’s an exaggeration and go with a more conservative 30%. In the US, that means roughly 110 million people getting sick. And of those 110 million, over 10-15 million or more need a hospital bed.

Yet, the US only has 924,000 hospital beds… and about two-thirds of those are filled at any given time with, you know, people with cancer and {inappropriate language}.

So, while staying home, from an individual risk perspective, seems unnecessary and an overreaction, from a systemic risk perspective, it’s the only prudent thing to do. The more people who go out and about, the faster this thing spreads, and the faster this thing spreads, the more the hospitals get flooded, and the more the hospitals get flooded, the more people die unnecessarily.”
https://www.activeresponsetraining.net/ ... n-covid-19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The only thing that article gets wrong is it uses total hospital beds -- these patients will need ICU beds and the US and there are only about 97,000 ICU beds (source). That's just a bit more than 10% the figure in that article. In a crisis some of those other beds can be converted to ICU beds, but only some of them.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by Glock Rock »

Swine flu (H1N1) government data FWIW: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21342903 guesstimates 8,900 to 18,300 died in the USA.
From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8,868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1.

WAY more devastating than COVID-19 (so far). "Only" 6,100 dead globally to date. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... rc404=true

Confirmed cases
162,689

Reported deaths
6,065
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Re: Corona virus

Post by Glock Rock »

DontTreadOnMe wrote:
The only thing that article gets wrong is it uses total hospital beds -- these patients will need ICU beds and the US and there are only about 97,000 ICU beds (source). That's just a bit more than 10% the figure in that article. In a crisis some of those other beds can be converted to ICU beds, but only some of them.
I totally get this, but a choice has been made by these governors. The choice to keep 97,000 beds ready for a potential, while likely devastating thousands of business and tens of thousands of jobs.

Tough decision.
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Re: Corona virus

Post by DontTreadOnMe »

The thing is without a vaccine people are going to get sick from this. If businesses stay open and people interact normally then more people are going to get very sick faster and overwhelm medical services, and more people will die than otherwise would. Either way, the economy is going to get hit. That part's unavoidable.

This was seen a hundred years ago during the Spanish flu. A comparison of 17 US cities found that those that acted quickly with public shutdowns ("social distancing") experienced 50% lower overall mortality rates vs. those that did not. https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Ultimately lower mortality rates will allow for better recovery from the economic hit that this virus is going to cause.
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