Ohio CHL count as of 2Q2014

[BobK]

Those of you who have been on the forums for a while remember our valued frequent (albeit former) contributor AlanM.

I have always considered his CHL computations as close to the "gold standard" as we have. Basically, he has tracked on a spreadsheet the quarterly statistics published by the Ohio Attorney General's office.

He accounts for new licenses issued, computes how many licenses have expired (was 4 years after issuance, now 5 years), adds in renewals, and revocations, mixes in a little secret sauce, and voilà!

This is the best estimate of the TOTAL CHL statistics for the period April 2004 through June 2014 (most recent report):

Code: Select all

Licenses Issued:                 490,715
Licenses Renewed:                156,803
Licenses Suspended:                6,829
Licenses Revoked:                  9,327
Licenses Denied:                   6,763
License Processes Suspended:         734
Temporary Licenses  Issued:          679
Temporary Licenses  Suspended:         8
Temporary Licenses  Revoked:          20
Temporary Licenses  Denied:           27
Licenses Expired:                176,375
Total licenses in effect:        461,816
Renewal Rate:                      88.90%

The 2010 Census lists Ohioans age 21 and older as 8,305,392 from a total population of 11,536,504 (71.99%).

The US Census bureau lists 2013 population as 11,570,808, a 0.3% increase. Applying the same 71.99% percentage yields an estimated 8,330,088 number of adults age 21 and older. Thus 461,816 CHLs are 5.5% of the adult population.

I am not aware of any good way to estimate the number of convicted felons over age 21 to adjust the numbers accordingly. However, since there are about 50,000 prisoners in Ohio prisons today, even guestimating that there are 5 felons released for every felon imprisoned only changes the estimate by a few tenths of a percent.

[MyWifeSaidYes]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

[WestonDon]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

I really don't care how many people I pass each day are legally concealing a handgun. In fact I wish more were.

I am a little more concerned about how many people I pass each day who are illegally concealing a handgun........... And why.

[Brian D.]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

I don't figure the numbers that way because there are a LARGE amount of said licensees who are rarely if ever actually carrying. They get cold feet or lazy after a short time as licensees.

[MyWifeSaidYes]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

I don't figure the numbers that way because there are a LARGE amount of said licensees who are rarely if ever actually carrying. They get cold feet or lazy after a short time as licensees.

That's specifically why I said "MAY".

I don't care who is carrying, good guy or bad guy...as long as I can carry, too.

What I like about those numbers is the look on anti-gunners' faces when I tell them.

[carmen fovozzo]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

I don't figure the numbers that way because there are a LARGE amount of said licensees who are rarely if ever actually carrying. They get cold feet or lazy after a short time as licensees.

This is so true.

[Naticarry]

So, 1 out of every 18 adults you pass each day MAY be legally concealing a handgun.

That's 1 out of every 25 men, women and children.

I walked past over 100 people on my last trip to Walmart. Couldn't tell you how many people I passed while driving.

I don't figure the numbers that way because there are a LARGE amount of said licensees who are rarely if ever actually carrying. They get cold feet or lazy after a short time as licensees.

This is so true.

That or their employer doesn't allow them to carry, which makes it difficult to carry on a daily basis. A year ago I worked for an employer who had such policies and I would end up not carrying on most errands I ran because I did them on the way home from work. My current employer has a much more lenient policy that simply states I may not "use a weapon" on another employee inside the facility. I was pleasantly surprised to see that a company of our size actually had this policy that makes much more sense than the typical CPZ attitude.

[Klingon00]

I always assume everyone "may" be carrying, that way I'm never surprised.

To put things into perspective, the Canadian armed forces only have approximately 120,000 personnel, both active duty and reserve. Mexico has about 280K active duty.

I wonder if at least that many Ohio CHL holders go armed on a daily basis?